A stronger Singapore Dollar might curb imported inflation but will also dampen exports & tourism. The Singapore Dollar has gained about 8 percent against the U.S. dollar this year, and closed at a record S$1.2835 on Nov. 4.
By Aaron Low
The flood of hot money unleashed by the United States' latest round of monetary easing runs the risk of inflating a Singapore property bubble and increases the chances of further property dampening measures, analysts warned yesterday.
Regional markets - already awash with liquidity from advanced economies seeking better returns in Asia - are expected to be on the receiving end of a large slice of the US$600 billion (S$770 billion) injected by the US Federal Reserve last week.
A Citigroup report noted that loan growth had already been rising and the stock market had seen a flurry of activity, with trading volumes higher and a surge of new listings, even before the latest round of easing was announced.
And Dr Chua Hak Bin, economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, is among a growing number of experts concerned that the low interest rate environment is combining with the flow of liquidity to form 'the right conditions for a bubble to form'.
'It's too early to say if there is indeed a bubble, but the conditions are right,' he said.
Analysts are highlighting property as the asset area most likely to be impacted by these large flows, with the market boosted in two ways.
The more direct route is via foreign funds buying into property directly, pushing prices up.
The other is by flows pushing down interest rates and allowing people to borrow more to buy property.
'Property is probably the most interest-rate-sensitive sector there is and Asians are fanatical about property,' said DBS economist David Carbon.
In August, the Government announced a series of measures to curb property speculation, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said last week that the Government was still carefully watching the market.
Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said that concern over how much households are borrowing to finance their homes and 'political pressures ahead of general election' could lead to more cooling measures.
'Amid flush liquidity and low interest rates, further administrative tightening measures on property are likely if transaction volumes or prices re-accelerate,' he said.
Dr Chua Yang Liang, head of research at real estate firm Jones Lang LaSalle in Singapore, said such curbs would most likely kick in only if the mass market segment overheats.
He noted that the August measures were primarily aimed at the Housing Board market and mass market condominiums, whereas liquidity from the latest round of quantitative easing - or QE2 as it is termed - is likely to focus more on high-end private market properties.
'A key indicator is how fast prices in the mass market segment will rise. A sustainable rate is 1 to 2 per cent a quarter,' he said.
If the housing market does look in danger of overheating, the Government has a range of weapons to call on, he said.
They include increasing the cash down payment needed to buy property, higher stamp duty, and a more drastic capital gains tax.
As City Developments (CDL) announced yesterday that about 75 per cent of the 150 units at its freehold Glyndebourne condo have been sold since the preview began on Friday, some other developers are rushing to try to release projects before the year-end holiday season sets in.
UOL Group is expected to preview the freehold Spottiswoode Residences condo next week, and the price is expected to be about $2,000 per square feet (psf). About 90 per cent of the 351 units comprise one-bedroom, one-bedroom-plus-study and two-bedroom apartments.
The project, a 36-storey tower, is next to Spottiswoode Park, a green lung in the area, and close to Tanjong Pagar, which is slated to be transformed into a new bustling waterfront district after the container terminals in the vicinity eventually move out.
The Tanjong Pagar Railway Station site is also expected to be redeveloped after Keretapi Tanah Melayu vacates the site under a historic land-swap deal between Singapore and Malaysia announced in September.
Over at Robinson Road, agents are said to be gathering interest for the freehold Robinson Suites at prices ranging from $2,300 psf to $3,300 psf. The 42-storey project, to be developed on the VTB Building site, comprises 167 apartments and three ground-floor shop units. All the apartments are either one-bedroom-plus-study units or two-bedders. Unit sizes start at 484 sq ft.
The developer - a consortium whose shareholders include Cheong Sim Lam (whose family developed International Plaza), Fission Holdings, Tan Koo Chuan and Saw Pik Kee - is pitching the project as the 'first-ever freehold apartments along Robinson Road'.
CapitaLand, meanwhile, is getting ready to release the first phase of its 1,715-unit condo on the 99-year-leasehold Farrer Court site. The 36-storey Zaha Hadid-designed project will feature one to four-bedroom apartments, penthouses and six pairs of strata semi-detached houses.
In the mass-market segment, Sim Lian is said to be gunning to release Waterview, a 99-year-leasehold condo comprising 696 units at Tampines Ave 1/10 facing Bedok Reservoir, as soon as it gets all the necessary approvals from the authorities.
The project will comprise two, three and four-bedroom apartments and penthouses. The average price is expected to be in the $820-920 psf range.
Meanwhile, CDL said yesterday it sold 112 units at its 150-unit Glyndebourne condo on Dunearn Road between Friday and Sunday.
'All one-bedroom-plus-study, two-bedroom and three-bedroom-plus-study units have been snapped up. A wide spectrum of other unit types was also sold, including 10 out of the 23 penthouses,' CDL said in a statement yesterday.
Seventy per cent of the buyers are Singaporeans, with permanent residents and foreigners from Malaysia, the United States, Indonesia, China, India, Myanmar, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Brunei making up the remaining 30 per cent.
CDL began previewing the project on Oct 29 on behalf of its London-listed hotel unit Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, which owns the freehold site on which the condo will be developed.
The Copthorne Orchid Hotel Singapore on the site will be closed at the end of March 2011 to make way for the redevelopment of the site into Glyndebourne.
CDL said the 112 units sold were at prices ranging from $1,900 to $2,350 psf, or at an average price of about $2,100 psf.
